One area the place occasions seem to have developed at breakneck pace lately is that of Nagorno-Karabakh, the previous Armenian-dominated breakaway republic that – regardless of being internationally acknowledged as Azerbaijani territory – was dominated with the assist of Armenian militants. from Yerevan over the previous thirty years.
After Azerbaijan’s military defeated Armenian forces there in 2020 and a Russian-brokered ceasefire was agreed, Baku determined this month to launch a 24-hour operation to complete the job and take full management of the realm.
To many within the worldwide neighborhood, this merely appeared like a victory for Azerbaijan and an enlargement of its territory inside its personal borders, whereas to others – particularly these within the Western media who had been far faraway from the state of affairs – it was an act of ‘ethnic cleaning’ was. ‘ of the Azerbaijani authorities in opposition to ethnic Armenians.
There have actually been atrocities dedicated by Azerbaijani forces in opposition to Armenians and vice versa lately, though an intensive media presence and private interviews appear to indicate that the hundred thousand Armenians who’ve fled Nagorno-Karabakh up to now have been handled pretty.
If true, this goes in opposition to what main media retailers have claimed, akin to that Azerbaijan refused to supply ensures for the preservation of rights to the Armenian individuals, and that Baku has expelled the Armenian inhabitants who at the moment are fleeing the previous breakaway republic and banished.
Right here is the textual content. It says the choice to finish the Nagorno-Karabakh republic was taken as a part of the settlement reached with Azerbaijan.
Uncover this part:
“Free, voluntary and unhindered journey is assured for the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh”
What occurred to the “compelled… pic.twitter.com/fhDPYdfXpR
— Ragip Soylu (@ragipsoylu) September 28, 2023
Such media clearly refuse – or fail – to acknowledge that Azerbaijan has certainly finished so offer an settlement for vital autonomy underneath his rule with the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh previous to the ultimate operation, which was rejected, and that the Armenians might then stay within the area on the situation that they take Azerbaijani citizenship.
The vast majority of the Armenian inhabitants refused and as an alternative determined to go away, as is their proper, largely out of worry that Baku wouldn’t shield their rights.
Such attitudes from the Western mainstream media are after all no shock and are hardly a brand new phenomenon. What’s a momentous growth, nonetheless, is the geopolitical shift that has taken place over the previous week and the results it’ll have in reshaping the dynamics of the area.
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Simply over a century in the past, in the direction of the top of the First World Conflict, when the Western allies defeated Imperial Germany and the Ottoman Empire, the areas of the South Caucasus and the Trans-Caspia shaped certainly one of many fronts of battle between the British and Turkish Armed Forces. .
The area across the Caspian Sea was extra of an afterthought than a significant battlefield. It was teeming with intelligence officers and brokers of the competing powers, making it a middle of espionage and intrigue between the British, Germans, former Imperial Russians and the Bolsheviks. who had not too long ago gained energy in Moscow.
On the time, the Turks had been a declining energy amid the upcoming defeat and dismantling of the Ottoman Empire, however an aggressive power nonetheless – a lot to the chagrin of the area’s Armenians – as they had been steadily cornered by Western imperial forces.
It was hardly a time of promise and glory for anybody who subscribed to Pan-Turkism or Turanism, and what adopted was seven a long time of Soviet rule within the area till 1991, after which the formation of the various nationwide republics as soon as that empire fell .
Now, simply over three a long time of nation-building later, Azerbaijan is nicely positioned to grab all of the territory allotted to it underneath worldwide legislation. Furthermore, Turkiye’s diplomatic and navy assist solely strengthens that place, making each Ankara and Baku an rising and formidable alliance inside the South Caucasus.
Their relations with Turkmenistan, throughout the Caspian Sea, and the broader conglomerate of Turkish nations within the Turkiye-led Group of Turkish States (also called the Turkic Council) have additional resulted in a broader alliance that’s more and more ripe for a possible new regional order.
Within the present state of affairs, an occasion akin to a big navy growth – as on this case, Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh – might doubtlessly set off a sequence of subsequent occasions that will utterly change the dynamics within the geopolitical enviornment – and they’re already began.
This week, Kazakh President Kasym-Zomart Tokayev introduced throughout his go to to the German capital Berlin that his nation will adhere to worldwide, Western-led sanctions in opposition to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
It was a stunning growth, provided that Kazakhstan had historically been inside Moscow’s sphere of affect, and it led some analysts to conclude that the favorable timing of the Azerbaijan victory was too near be a mere coincidence. Thus far, there may be little proof to verify a hyperlink between the Kazakh determination and the occasions in Nagorno-Karabakh, however they do point out a particular boldness by the Turkic international locations that has not been seen for a very long time.
Azerbaijan’s conquest of all assigned territories doesn’t instantly imply a blow to Russia, nor does Turkiye’s assist for Baku. Moscow has additionally positioned itself extra as a mediator within the South Caucasus than as an assertive energy, which isn’t stunning given the nation’s concentrate on the struggle in Ukraine.
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Regardless of this complexity and the dearth of hostility in the direction of Russia from Turkey and Azerbaijan, the developments imply a decline in Russian affect within the South Caucasus and Trans-Caspia, whereas Ankara and Baku reap the advantages.
Instantly after the victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met together with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev, and collectively they concluded a sequence of agreements, together with a deal to put the inspiration for a fuel pipeline stretching from japanese Turkey to Nakhchivan, the Azerbaijani area. enclave bordering southwestern Armenia.
Shortly afterwards, Erdogan pushed for the creation of the strategic Zangezur Hall, which might run from japanese Turkey to Nakhchivan after which on to mainland Azerbaijan through land and rail routes, primarily establishing the territorial hyperlink between the 2 allies accelerated.
Within the coming months it’s changing into more and more doubtless that additional agreements can be signed and agreements made to ensure the creation of that hall, because the pace of present developments appears to make this a actuality each month.
Nevertheless, the largest impediment Ankara and Baku would face in that course of could be Iran. The idea of the hall has lengthy made Tehran uneasy as a result of it’ll run alongside its solely land border with Armenia and would successfully minimize the nation off territorially from the South Caucasus.
Erdogan has sought to allay these considerations by creating nearer ties with Iran over the previous 12 months, expressing his hope earlier this week “to make our area a basin of peace and prosperity by means of joint initiatives that may also embody our neighboring Iran can be concerned.”
However, we must always anticipate potential strikes by Tehran to diplomatically foyer in opposition to the hall and even covertly undermine its growth, probably in coordination with Moscow if Moscow decides to reassert its affect in that space.
Iran has no intention of shedding its personal affect within the South Caucasus, even when it has been quickly declining over the previous decade and particularly since 2020. Nevertheless, the nation might be reassured if there are adequate ensures that the nation can have a share within the spoils and alternatives that Turkiye and Azerbaijan have reaped.
Be that as it might, it has undoubtedly develop into clear that the Turkish bloc – for those who can name it that – is now the main participant within the South Caucasus and the Trans-Caspian area, and one of many largest geopolitical shifts in 2023 and past units in movement. .
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The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror the editorial coverage of Center East Monitor.
