Iran has vowed to punish Israel over a latest assault on its consulate in Damascus, which has been blamed on Israel, and fears are rising that an imminent response may threat sparking a wider battle.
Nonetheless, there are a selection of various methods Iran may retaliate, and specialists say not all pose the identical threat of escalation.
With warnings rising Friday {that a} response may come quickly, France suggested its residents to not journey to Israel, the Palestinian territories, Iran or its ally Lebanon.
However what precisely occurs subsequent will doubtless rely upon how Iran chooses to hold out its retaliation, which can doubtless happen towards the backdrop of the battle between Israel and Hamas.
The truth that not one of the governments concerned needs to impress an escalation doesn’t essentially defend towards the outbreak of a large-scale disaster, says David Khalfa, Center East specialist on the French assume tank Jean-Jaures Basis.
“Miscalculations are very doable. Deterrence has an eminently psychological side,” he instructed AFP.
“The belligerents are on the mercy of any error or mistake which may have a collection of successive penalties.”
The airstrike that hit the Iranian consulate constructing within the Syrian capital on April 1 killed 16 individuals, together with seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The very best-ranking useless determine was Brigadier Normal Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Quds Power, which leads Iran’s overseas army operations.
Iran and Syria have blamed the assault on Israel, which has not confirmed its involvement however is broadly seen as accountable – together with by its allies.
– ‘Tehran doesn’t need direct battle’ –
“Israel’s airstrike on the ability was meant to inform Tehran that will probably be held accountable for the actions of Hamas and different non-state allies resembling Lebanese Hezbollah and the Huthis in Yemen,” stated the Soufan Middle, a non-governmental group. revenue group. that analyzes international safety challenges.
After the assault, Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Israel “have to be punished and shall be punished.”
The White Home, which has insisted the USA would stand firmly behind its ally Israel, insisted on Friday that Iran’s threats have been “actual.”
The US additionally despatched its prime Center East commander, the top of US Central Command, Michael Kurilla, to Israel to debate the issues.
Iran has an arsenal that may strike a variety of Israeli targets, together with infrastructure, airports or key power manufacturing websites.
The Soufan Middle stated the place of Israel and the USA “means that they count on Tehran to hold out its assault utilizing its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, in addition to armed drones.”
However for the reason that assault on the consulate, Iran has remained obscure about precisely the way it will reply.
Eva Koulouriotis, an unbiased Center East analyst, stated: “Iran continues to be threatening to reply because it sends regional and worldwide messages that it’s in search of a political different to a army response.
“What is for certain is that Tehran doesn’t need a direct battle with Israel, no less than on the present stage,” she instructed AFP.
– ‘Solely unhealthy selections’ –
Iran “faces a dilemma,” Michel Duclos, a former French diplomat, wrote on the web site of the Institut Montaigne assume tank.
“The nation is undoubtedly not assured sufficient in its power to confidently contemplate an escalation with Israel,” he wrote.
“Nonetheless, if the nation doesn’t reply, it dangers dropping some credibility within the area, together with amongst armed teams that pledge allegiance” to Iran, he added.
Iran sponsors armed teams in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon that type the so-called “Axis of Resistance” towards Israel and they seem like on the entrance strains greater than ever, stated Farzan Sabet, an analyst on the Geneva Graduate Institute. .
Iran may probably reply by asking these teams to extend assaults or enhance weapons provides, Sabet wrote on X.
“This feature is extra deniable, has decrease political prices and is much less prone to trigger rapid blowback.”
Different doable choices embrace an assault on Israeli diplomatic missions overseas, which might have the drawback of involving a 3rd nation.
Iran may additionally “conduct terrorist assaults on U.S. diplomatic amenities in or outdoors the area,” the Soufan Middle stated.
Khalfa stated that with the April 1 strike, Israel wished to “change the foundations of the sport by hitting the top of the octopus, and never simply the tentacles, to power Iran out of the shadow battle.”
Now “the Iranians have solely unhealthy selections obtainable to them,” he added.
